Politics and shopping carts are more connected than most people realize.Prices, tariffs, and energy costs are policy issues, and how people feel about the economy shapes how they vote. With the US midterm elections set for November 3, here’s a look at what the data shows about how Americans are feeling, how they’re actually spending, and where the political disagreements lie.
Sentiment Is Near Record Lows
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is near the lowest level in the survey’s history. According to Reuters, the final October reading was 48.0, essentially flat from 48.1 in September. Survey director Joanne Hsu said sentiment is 10% below a year ago and 15% below February, just before the conflict with Iran. She described purchasing power as dominating consumer views of the economy.
ABC News reports that the average price of a gallon of gas is $4.29 per AAA, roughly 43% higher than when the Iran war began, and that shoppers expect inflation to rise further over the next year. U.S. News puts year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.7%.
But Spending Has Held Up
Here’s the puzzle: people feel terrible, yet they keep spending. ABC reports that consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 0.9% in August, and that GDP grew over the three months ending in June despite fears of a downturn.
One explanation is that spending is concentrated among higher earners. CNN quotes ING economist James Knightley saying the “K-shaped” economy has broken the usual relationship between sentiment and spending, as high-income households increasingly drive consumption. U.S. News adds that the top 10% of earners account for 24% of all spending, and the top 20% for 39%. In other words, a strong spending number doesn’t mean everyone is doing well.
The Reuters piece also offers a note of caution: if some spending reflects precautionary buying to get ahead of price increases, that could make disinflation harder to achieve.
Party Lines Shape How People Feel
How Americans view the economy often depends on their politics, and the shifts this year are interesting. According to Reuters, independents’ sentiment fell to 42.4 in October from 47.7 in September, close to May’s record low, while Democrats’ and Republicans’ scores improved. Since January, the share of people saying inflation hurts their finances rose 27% among independents, 52% among Republicans, and 15% among Democrats.
CBS Austin notes that Republican sentiment has dropped more sharply than Democratic sentiment since January, down 20% compared with 13%.
The Pew Research Center adds nuance. Even where there are wide partisan gaps on concerns about gasoline, energy, food, consumer goods, and healthcare prices, majorities in both parties say they are very concerned.Republicans (41%) are more optimistic than Democrats (14%) about future economic conditions, while half of Democrats and a quarter of Republicans expect things to get worse.
Prices And Policy
Two things come up in nearly every discussion of rising prices this year: tariffs and the Iran conflict. Reuters attributes the October dip to rising prices because of the Middle East conflict, and U.S. News says the April 2025 tariffs and the February 2026 Iran strike have led to higher prices on many items consumers buy regularly.That’s the framing from those outlets, and people disagree about how much each factor matters and how to weigh the trade-offs.
Pew’s data shows how divided opinion is on tariffs. Among Republicans, 40% say tariffs will have a mostly positive impact, down from 52% in August 2025, while 26% say they’ll be bad and 34% expect a mix. Among Democrats, 83% say the impact will be negative.
What Voters Are Worried About
Affordability appears to be a shared concern. A CNBC survey found that affordability issues ranked highly across the political spectrum. If Democrats take over Congress, 22% of all voters said they’re concerned they’ll fail to bring down prices, and if Republicans keep control, 24% said the same. CBS Austin reports that an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found registered voters trust Democrats over Republicans to handle the economy, 42% to 34%. Polls from different outlets vary, though, and U.S. News notes that the top issue has recently shifted from the economy to corruption in some polling.
What This Means For Shoppers
Whatever your politics, a few practical points follow from the data:
- Expect prices to stay a pressure point. Inflation expectations are elevated, and energy costs affect many categories.
- Compare before you buy. In a price-sensitive environment, small savings across many purchases add up.
- Be wary of “buy now before prices rise” pressure. Precautionary buying can be sensible for essentials, but it can also lead to overspending on things you don’t need.
- Keep an eye on big-ticket timing, since the same forces affecting everyday prices can affect financing and large purchases.
What This Means For Businesses
Businesses face a split market. Higher-income customers are keeping spending strong, while many others are cutting back, so value messaging and tiered pricing matter more.Because sentiment is so low, retailers should also expect shoppers to be quick to switch brands for a better price.
A Note On Buying With Your Values
Many consumers also shop based on political or social values, choosing or avoiding brands accordingly. I haven’t researched that in depth for this post, and its overall effect on spending is debated, so I won’t make claims about it here.
A Note On These Sources
These are news reports and survey results from late October 2026, and they’re a snapshot. Consumer sentiment surveys measure feelings, not spending directly. And the causes of higher prices, and what policies would fix them, are matters on which people reasonably disagree, so I’ve attributed claims to the outlets that made them.
The Bottom Line
Americans are feeling squeezed and say so across party lines, even as aggregate spending holds up, largely because higher earners are still spending. How voters read the cause of high prices and who they trust to fix them differs by party, and that will play out on November 3. For shoppers, the practical takeaway is to plan for prices to stay high and spend deliberately.
